Yahoo Mock Draft Review – Feburary 12
Yahoo Mock Draft Review – February 12
Round 1
(1) Frank J – Albert Pujols (StL – 1B)
(2) samhorn_2000 – Hanley Ramírez (Fla – SS)
(3) D – Álex Rodríguez (NYY – 3B)
(4) Lammster – Chase Utley (Phi – 2B)
(5) Anton – Ryan Braun (Mil – OF)
(6) Diego P – Matt Kemp (LAD – OF)
(7) Ryan – Tim Lincecum (SF – SP)
(8) danny h – Troy Tulowitzki (Col – SS)
(9) got2bwiz – Mark Teixeira (NYY – 1B)
(10) msilvett – Ryan Howard (Phi – 1B)
(11) michael – Prince Fielder (Mil – 1B)
(12) hyerocker97 – Joe Mauer (Min – C)
Best Pick – (1) Albert Pujols – Not really a clear ‘best’ pick in the first round, so I’ll just give it to the Albert Pujols pick.
Worst Pick – (8) Troy Tulowitzki – He’s a good young SS, but he’s only had one REALLY good fantasy season and that’s just a lot of risk.
My Pick – I was debating between Kemp & Lincecum but I ended up taking the position player over the pitcher. Kemp will help in all 5 categories which is always nice and he still has upside which is scary.
Round 2
(1) hyerocker97 – David Wright (NYM – 3B)
(2) michael – Mark Reynolds (Ari – 1B,3B)
(3) msilvett – Evan Longoria (TB – 3B)
(4) got2bwiz – Ian Kinsler (Tex – 2B)
(5) danny h – Miguel Cabrera (Det – 1B)
(6) Ryan – Roy Halladay (Phi – SP)
(7) Diego P – Jimmy Rollins (Phi – SS)
(8) Anton – Justin Upton (Ari – OF)
(9) Lammster – Matt Holliday (StL – OF)
(10) D – Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos – OF)
(11) samhorn_2000 – Dustin Pedroia (Bos – 2B)
(12) Frank J – Ichiro Suzuki (Sea – OF)
Best Pick – (6) Roy Halladay – Somewhat similar to the first round there isn’t really a clear cut winner, but if I had to choose one player out of these it’d probably be Halladay.
Worst Pick – (2) Mark Reynolds – The guy has had one good fantasy season and reminds me a lot of Josh Hamilton last year.
My Pick – I debated waiting until the third round to grab a SS, but I wasn’t in love with any of the other guys taken after him anyways. Pedroia/Upton were the only other ones I would have considered, but I’ll take the position scarcity here.
Round 3
(1) Frank J – Víctor Martínez (Bos – C,1B)
(2) samhorn_2000 – CC Sabathia (NYY – SP)
(3) D – Carl Crawford (TB – OF)
(4) Lammster – Adrián González (SD – 1B)
(5) Anton – Grady Sizemore (Cle – OF)
(6) Diego P – Zack Greinke (KC – SP)
(7) Ryan – Félix Hernández (Sea – SP)
(8) danny h – Joey Votto (Cin – 1B)
(9) got2bwiz – Ryan Zimmerman (Was – 3B)
(10) msilvett – Pablo Sandoval (SF – 1B,3B)
(11) michael – Brian McCann (Atl – C)
(12) hyerocker97 – Kevin Youkilis (Bos – 1B,3B)
Best Pick – (5) Grady Sizemore – Getting a possible top 10 offensive player in the third round could prove to be a steal.
Worst Pick – (4) Adrian Gonzalez – He’s never been a top 50 hitter in his career and he was just taken as the 28th best player. Not to mention 1B is loaded.
My Pick – I wanted to get a clear ace and it was between him and Felix, but I think Greinke is the better overall pitcher. Either one would have been good, though.
Round 4
(1) hyerocker97 – Kendry Morales (LAA – 1B)
(2) michael – Nelson Cruz (Tex – OF)
(3) msilvett – Derek Jeter (NYY – SS)
(4) got2bwiz – Ben Zobrist (TB – 2B,SS,OF)
(5) danny h – Chris Carpenter (StL – SP)
(6) Ryan – Justin Verlander (Det – SP)
(7) Diego P – Robinson Canó (NYY – 2B)
(8) Anton – Brian Roberts (Bal – 2B)
(9) Lammster – José Reyes (NYM – SS)
(10) D – Brandon Phillips (Cin – 2B)
(11) samhorn_2000 – Aramis Ramírez (ChC – 3B)
(12) Frank J – Johan Santana (NYM – SP)
Best Pick – (11) Aramis Ramirez – Ramirez is pretty much Pujols-lite. He’ll do a little bit of everything and is only being picked so late because of an injury last year. He’s generally very durable and should be a great player this year.
Worst Pick – (1) Kendry Morales – Morales broke out last year, but is he going to repeat? Maybe, but considering how deep the 1B pool is and his lack of a track record I wouldn’t have picked him this high.
My Pick – After I made this I somewhat regretted not picking Brandon Phillips, but I think Cano will provide more offense and I can make up the SB difference elsewhere.
Round 5
(1) Frank J – Jason Bay (NYM – OF)
(2) samhorn_2000 – Justin Morneau (Min – 1B)
(3) D – B.J. Upton (TB – OF)
(4) Lammster – Shin-Soo Choo (Cle – OF)
(5) Anton – Aaron Hill (Tor – 2B)
(6) Diego P – Michael Young (Tex – 3B)
(7) Ryan – Dan Haren (Ari – SP)
(8) danny h – Jayson Werth (Phi – OF)
(9) got2bwiz – Cliff Lee (Sea – SP)
(10) msilvett – Adam Wainwright (StL – SP)
(11) michael – Andre Ethier (LAD – OF)
(12) hyerocker97 – Derrek Lee (ChC – 1B)
Best Pick – (4) Shin-Soo Choo – He seems to be an extremely underrated player for some reason when he has a strong chance of putting up another extremely solid season.
Worst Pick – (1) Jason Bay – Moving to a bigger and less hitting friendly ballpark and to a much worse lineup? Not to mention he’s never helped the AVG category and he’s surely not going to suddenly start. A ton of risk in this pick without a ton of upside.
My Pick – Michael Young was somewhat of a reach at this point, but the drop off after him to the next 3B was pretty steep and he’s still a very good fantasy player even if the real life Young isn’t that great.
Round 6
(1) hyerocker97 – Curtis Granderson (NYY – OF)
(2) michael – Adam Dunn (Was – 1B,OF)
(3) msilvett – Adam Lind (Tor – OF)
(4) got2bwiz – Nick Markakis (Bal – OF)
(5) danny h – Yovani Gallardo (Mil – SP)
(6) Ryan – Josh Beckett (Bos – SP)
(7) Diego P – Wandy Rodríguez (Hou – SP)
(8) Anton – Andrew McCutchen (Pit – OF)
(9) Lammster – Bobby Abreu (LAA – OF)
(10) D – Denard Span (Min – OF)
(11) samhorn_2000 – Adam Jones (Bal – OF)
(12) Frank J – Javier Vázquez (NYY – SP)
Best Pick – (8) Andrew McCutchen – The guy has all the talent in the world and a full season of playing time could produce one of the more rounded offensive productions with 30+ SB.
Worst Pick – (6) Josh Beckett – Let me just say that this was not a bad pick, but of the guys listed I would have been most cautious of him.
My Pick – Rodriguez is an extremely reliable pitcher and staying in the NL Central will only help.
Round 7
(1) Frank J – Cole Hamels (Phi – SP)
(2) samhorn_2000 – Josh Johnson (Fla – SP)
(3) D – Ubaldo Jiménez (Col – SP)
(4) Lammster – Chone Figgins (Sea – 3B)
(5) Anton – Billy Butler (KC – 1B)
(6) Diego P – Jon Lester (Bos – SP)
(7) Ryan – Jake Peavy (CWS – SP)
(8) danny h – Carlos Lee (Hou – OF)
(9) got2bwiz – Jonathan Broxton (LAD – RP)
(10) msilvett – Shane Victorino (Phi – OF)
(11) michael – Carlos Peña (TB – 1B)
(12) hyerocker97 – Dan Uggla (Fla – 2B)
Best Pick – (6) Jon Lester – This is the first of my picks that I feel was the best (yay me). It was either between Lester or Uggla, but I do think Lester is already an ace and playing for Boston will surely net him quite a few W.
Worst Pick – (4) Chone Figgins – As a Mariners fan I’m really looking forward to Figgins this year, but for fantasy I’ll avoid him. He won’t be the leadoff hitter, I don’t think he’s going to steal as many bases and I don’t think he’ll put up a great BA to make up for it, not to mention he has zero power.
My Pick – Really glad I got Lester and I feel like I have 3 aces in my rotation already.
Round 8
(1) hyerocker97 – Torii Hunter (LAA – OF)
(2) michael – José López (Sea – 1B,2B)
(3) msilvett – Clayton Kershaw (LAD – SP)
(4) got2bwiz – Tommy Hanson (Atl – SP)
(5) danny h – Mariano Rivera (NYY – RP)
(6) Ryan – Jered Weaver (LAA – SP)
(7) Diego P – Lance Berkman (Hou – 1B)
(8) Anton – Joe Nathan (Min – RP)
(9) Lammster – Josh Hamilton (Tex – OF)
(10) D – Manny Ramírez (LAD – OF)
(11) samhorn_2000 – Jonathan Papelbon (Bos – RP)
(12) Frank J – Jorge Cantú (Fla – 1B,3B)
Best Pick – (1) Torii Hunter – This guy continuously is underrated, but he gives you everything you could ask for out of an OF. To be honest, I’d rather take him than Victorino who was picked in the last round.
Worst Pick – (4) Tommy Hanson – I debated between putting him or Kershaw as the worst, and again, neither is a really bad pick, but there were still some good pitchers left I would have taken over both.
My Pick – I had yet to draft a 1B and Lance Berkman is still a very good first basemen. He seems to be a bit undervalued. The R/RBI totals from last year are a tad worrisome, but every year before he’s put up at least a 90/90 season and having Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn in front of him should help.
Round 9
(1) Frank J – Nate McLouth (Atl – OF)
(2) samhorn_2000 – Matt Wieters (Bal – C)
(3) D – Ricky Nolasco (Fla – SP)
(4) Lammster – Andrew Bailey (Oak – RP)
(5) Anton – Joakim Soria (KC – RP)
(6) Diego P – Scott Baker (Min – SP)
(7) Ryan – Jason Bartlett (TB – SS)
(8) danny h – Matt Cain (SF – SP)
(9) got2bwiz – Michael Bourn (Hou – OF)
(10) msilvett – Carlos González (Col – OF)
(11) michael – Chad Billingsley (LAD – SP)
(12) hyerocker97 – Hunter Pence (Hou – OF)
Best Pick – (3) Ricky Nolasco – I had him next on my list, but he was snatched up just before me. He’s pretty much the ‘sleeper of the year’.
Worst Pick – (4) Andrew Bailey – Bailey is a talented player and stormed on to the scene last year, but he’ll have a short leash in a talented bullpen and I don’t think he was as good as he was last year.
My Pick – Baker is another undervalued player who finished off the season strong last year. Solid numbers across the board.
Round 10
(1) hyerocker97 – Ryan Dempster (ChC – SP)
(2) michael – Jair Jurrjens (Atl – SP)
(3) msilvett – Brian Wilson (SF – RP)
(4) got2bwiz – Heath Bell (SD – RP)
(5) danny h – Rickie Weeks (Mil – 2B)
(6) Ryan – Garrett Jones (Pit – 1B,OF)
(7) Diego P – Jason Kubel (Min – OF)
(8) Anton – Asdrubal Cabrera (Cle – 2B,SS)
(9) Lammster – Chris Coghlan (Fla – OF)
(10) D – Elvis Andrus (Tex – SS)
(11) samhorn_2000 – José Valverde (Det – RP)
(12) Frank J – Alfonso Soriano (ChC – OF)
Best Pick – (8) Asdrubal Cabrera – This pick could have gone to Rickie Weeks as well. Anyways, Cabrera is a very valuable SS and the fact that he has 2B eligibility only helps him solidify his case as a nice backup or even starting SS. I’d personally take him over Andrus/Alexei Ramirez and some other guys.
Worst Pick – (9) Chris Coghlan – If he moves to 2B it makes the pick better, but if he stays in the OF and regresses like he’s expected to that seems like a waste of pick. Garrett Jones was also in the running for this as well. Pick one, it doesn’t matter.
My Pick – Kubel has absolutely destroyed RHP in his career and he’s sort of like a Curtis Granderson without the steals. Play your matchups right and he’ll give you a lot of value.
Round 11
(1) Frank J – Edwin Jackson (Ari – SP)
(2) samhorn_2000 – Franklin Gutiérrez (Sea – OF)
(3) D – John Danks (CWS – SP)
(4) Lammster – James Shields (TB – SP)
(5) Anton – Matt Garza (TB – SP)
(6) Diego P – Carlos Mármol (ChC – RP)
(7) Ryan – Raúl Ibañez (Phi – OF)
(8) danny h – Julio Borbón (Tex – OF)
(9) got2bwiz – Ian Stewart (Col – 2B,3B)
(10) msilvett – A.J. Burnett (NYY – SP)
(11) michael – Huston Street (Col – RP)
(12) hyerocker97 – Yunel Escobar (Atl – SS)
Best Pick – (5) Matt Garza – Honestly, this entire round was pretty bad in my opinion. Yunel Escobar was also in the running for this.
Worst Pick – (2) Franklin Gutierrez – Gutierrez is an amazing defender, but he’s expected to regress offensively next year and isn’t that great. Edwin Jackson/Ian Stewart/Julio Borbon were all in the running for this pick as well.
My Pick – I wanted to get some saves and decided Marmol was the best choice. The only thing I’m afraid of is Lou Pineilla giving him an extremely short leash.
Round 12
(1) hyerocker97 – Gavin Floyd (CWS – SP)
(2) michael – Chipper Jones (Atl – 3B)
(3) msilvett – Randy Wolf (Mil – SP)
(4) got2bwiz – Russell Martin (LAD – C)
(5) danny h – Brett Anderson (Oak – SP)
(6) Ryan – Vladimir Guerrero (Tex – Util)
(7) Diego P – Gordon Beckham (CWS – 3B)
(8) Anton – John Lackey (Bos – SP)
(9) Lammster – Francisco Rodríguez (NYM – RP)
(10) D – David Ortiz (Bos – 1B)
(11) samhorn_2000 – Jay Bruce (Cin – OF)
(12) Frank J – Alexei Ramírez (CWS – SS)
Best Pick – (5) Brett Anderson – Another ace in the making who was next on my list only to be snatched up before I could grab him.
Worst Pick – (3) Randy Wolf – Randy Wolf is not good…Vlad and David Ortiz were also in the running as well.
My Pick – Gordon Beckham will be a nice backup 3B/2B with a lot of upside who I may use as my util from time to time. If Brett Anderson wasn’t taken in this round I think he would have been the best pick here.
Round 13
(1) Frank J – Roy Oswalt (Hou – SP)
(2) samhorn_2000 – Tim Hudson (Atl – SP)
(3) D – Rick Porcello (Det – SP)
(4) Lammster – Neftali Feliz (Tex – RP)
(5) Anton – Rafael Soriano (TB – RP)
(6) Diego P – Mike Napoli (LAA – C)
(7) Ryan – Kurt Suzuki (Oak – C)
(8) danny h – Ryan Ludwick (StL – OF)
(9) got2bwiz – Álex Ríos (CWS – OF)
(10) msilvett – Jorge Posada (NYY – C)
(11) michael – Michael Cuddyer (Min – 1B,OF)
(12) hyerocker97 – Kevin Correia (SD – SP)
Best Pick – (6) Mike Napoli – Napoli is one of the best catchers around. His counting stats don’t look great because he doesn’t start as much as he probably should, but paired up with another catcher while paying attention to the lineups that day and you’ll get some great production out of the C spot.
Worst Pick – (12) Kevin Correia – I really don’t think he’ll repeat like he did last year. Neftali Feliz is also a debatable pick. He has all the talent in the world, but I don’t think he’ll close in Texas and if he ends up in the rotation there are still question marks for this year. Michael Cuddyer was bad too.
My Pick – I got the best pick award and I’m glad to have Napoli as my starting C.
Round 14
(1) hyerocker97 – Francisco Cordero (Cin – RP)
(2) michael – Hiroki Kuroda (LAD – SP)
(3) msilvett – David Aardsma (Sea – RP)
(4) got2bwiz – Brad Hawpe (Col – OF)
(5) danny h – Mark DeRosa (SF – 1B,3B,OF)
(6) Ryan – Johnny Damon (NYY – OF)
(7) Diego P – Marco Scutaro (Bos – SS)
(8) Anton – Adrián Béltre (Bos – 3B)
(9) Lammster – Bengie Molina (SF – C)
(10) D – Brian Fuentes (LAA – RP)
(11) samhorn_2000 – J.A. Happ (Phi – SP,RP)
(12) Frank J – Carlos Quentin (CWS – OF)
Best Pick – (6) Johnny Damon – He will get a job somewhere, and with the most probably teams (Tigers/Braves) he’ll have a good chance at putting up some nice numbers. DeRosa was also a very nice pick. I also thought Beltre was a great pick.
Worst Pick – (10) Brian Fuentes – It seems clear to me that Fuentes is going to have a very short leash next year and he’s just not that good. Happ was also in the running, but being a starter he’s more likely to provide more value.
My Pick – (7) Marco Scutaro – Last year was Scutaro’s breakout season and while I don’t think he’s going to repeat, moving to a RH friendly ballpark and better lineup should boost his value. I like him for a lot of the same reasons as Beltre.
Round 15
(1) Frank J – Stephen Strasburg (Was – SP)
(2) samhorn_2000 – Carlos Zambrano (ChC – SP)
(3) D – Kevin Slowey (Min – SP)
(4) Lammster – Randy Wells (ChC – SP)
(5) Anton – Geovany Soto (ChC – C)
(6) Diego P – Chad Qualls (Ari – RP)
(7) Ryan – Casey McGehee (Mil – 2B,3B)
(8) danny h – Miguel Montero (Ari – C)
(9) got2bwiz – Justin Duchscherer (Oak – SP)
(10) msilvett – Ryan Franklin (StL – RP)
(11) michael – Rafael Furcal (LAD – SS)
(12) hyerocker97 – Ben Sheets (Oak – SP)
Best Pick – (3) Kevin Slowey – The Minnesota pitchers tend to be very underrated. Slowey reminds me of Scott Baker except not quite as good. Still, for a 15th round pick that’s some great value.
Worst Pick – (4) Randy Wells – I don’t think Randy Wells is all that talented and I think last year he played way over his head. I would have easily taken Duchscherer or Sheets over him, and those were just 2 pitchers takent after him in this round.
My Pick – Chad Qualls is going to be the closer again for a possibly very good Diamondbacks team. Not sure how you could take a guy like Brian Fuentes over him, but whatever.
Round 16
(1) hyerocker97 – Billy Wagner (Atl – RP)
(2) michael – Jeff Niemann (TB – SP)
(3) msilvett – Brandon Webb (Ari – SP)
(4) got2bwiz – Rich Harden (Tex – SP)
(5) danny h – Aaron Harang (Cin – SP)
(6) Ryan – Brandon Inge (Det – 3B)
(7) Diego P – J.D. Drew (Bos – OF)
(8) Anton – Jorge De La Rosa (Col – SP)
(9) Lammster – Jonathan Sánchez (SF – SP)
(10) D – Ryan Doumit (Pit – C)
(11) samhorn_2000 – Trevor Hoffman (Mil – RP)
(12) Frank J – Adam Kennedy (Was – 2B,3B)
Best pick – (3) Brandon Webb – Lots of good picks in this round, but I think a healthy Webb will easily outproduce everyone else taken.
Worst Pick – (12) Adam Kennedy – Kennedy may be the starting 2B for the Nationals and he may have 2B/3B elgibility and he’s probably Frank J’s backup, but considering a guy like Alberto Callaspo was still available I don’t understand why you would take him.
My Pick – JD Drew is a lot like Jason Kubel. He kills opposite handed pitching and if you play the matchups right he can provide a lot of value.
Round 17
(1) Frank J – Ervin Santana (LAA – SP)
(2) samhorn_2000 – James Loney (LAD – 1B)
(3) D – Leo Núñez (Fla – RP)
(4) Lammster – Matt Thornton (CWS – RP)
(5) Anton – Erik Bedard (Sea – SP)
(6) Diego P – Adam LaRoche (Ari – 1B)
(7) Ryan – Cody Ross (Fla – OF)
(8) danny h – Ryan Rowland-Smith (Sea – SP)
(9) got2bwiz – Joe Blanton (Phi – SP)
(10) msilvett – Carlos Beltrán (NYM – OF)
(11) michael – Mark Buehrle (CWS – SP)
(12) hyerocker97 – Johnny Cueto (Cin – SP)
Best Pick – (11) Mark Buehrle – I’m actually surprised he lasted this long. He’s a very solid pitcher who I would have taken over a guy like RR-S, or a lot of other pitchers taken a few rounds before him.
Worst Pick – (7) Cody Ross – He’s not all that great and I honestly would have taken Carlos Beltran over him, although I probably wouldn’t have picked either.
My Pick – Moving in to Arizona should help LaRoche’s power numbers and I only need him as a backup which is nice. Still, if Berkman goes down with an injury I don’t feel bad at all using LaRoche as my starter.
Round 18
(1) hyerocker97 – Scott Kazmir (LAA – SP)
(2) michael – Alfredo Aceves (NYY – RP)
(3) msilvett – Bobby Jenks (CWS – RP)
(4) got2bwiz – Frank Francisco (Tex – RP)
(5) danny h – Kenshin Kawakami (Atl – SP,RP)
(6) Ryan – Juan Rivera (LAA – OF)
(7) Diego P – David Price (TB – SP)
(8) Anton – Derek Lowe (Atl – SP)
(9) Lammster – Mike Adams (SD – RP)
(10) D – Paul Maholm (Pit – SP)
(11) samhorn_2000 – Daisuke Matsuzaka (Bos – SP)
(12) Frank J – Phil Hughes (NYY – SP,RP)
Best Pick – (4) Frank Francisco – Getting a closer this late is pretty nice and there were a lot of picks I liked, but nothing really stands out as a best pick.
Worst Pick – (2) Alfredo Aceves, (9) Mike Adams – Okay, neither of these guys are closers, and in the case of at least Aceves, he’s not even the second or third closer on the depth chart. Terrible, terrible picks.
My Pick – David Price has a lot of ability and I’m unsure how he’ll perform in the AL East this year, but with the defense and lineup he has he could be a very valuable starter.
Round 19
(1) Frank J – Max Scherzer (Det – SP)
(2) samhorn_2000 – Casey Blake (LAD – 3B)
(3) D – Howie Kendrick (LAA – 2B)
(4) Lammster – Nyjer Morgan (Was – OF)
(5) Anton – Nolan Reimold (Bal – OF)
(6) Diego P – Mike González (Bal – RP)
(7) Ryan – Wade Davis (TB – SP)
(8) danny h – Stephen Drew (Ari – SS)
(9) got2bwiz – Ryan Theriot (ChC – SS)
(10) msilvett – Ted Lilly (ChC – SP)
(11) michael – Brandon McCarthy (Tex – SP)
(12) hyerocker97 – Corey Hart (Mil – OF)
Best Pick – (3) Howie Kendrick – I actually had him at the top of my draft board for a very long time, but with Gordon Beckham already in the mix I didn’t feel like using a roster spot on him. If healthy he could put up a .320+ BA playing in a very good LA lineup.
Worst Pick – (7) Wade Davis – I don’t hate any particular pick in this round as every one of them are useful, but Davis is probably the player with the most question marks, although he does have the highest upside.
My Pick – I chose Gonzalez as my third reliever and he should be a decent supply of saves.
Round 20
(1) hyerocker97 – Rajai Davis (Oak – OF)
(2) michael – Vernon Wells (Tor – OF)
(3) msilvett – Maicer Izturis (LAA – 2B,SS)
(4) got2bwiz – Chris Young (Ari – OF)
(5) danny h – Miguel Tejada (Bal – SS)
(6) Ryan – Joba Chamberlain (NYY – SP)
(7) Diego P – Elijah Dukes (Was – OF)
(8) Anton – Erick Aybar (LAA – SS)
(9) Lammster – Colby Rasmus (StL – OF)
(10) D – Alex Gordon (KC – 3B)
(11) samhorn_2000 – Kevin Millwood (Bal – SP)
(12) Frank J – Edinson Vólquez (Cin – SP)
Best Pick – (1) Rajai Davis – This guy turned in a great season last year and is rewarded by being picked in the 20th round. The OAK outfield may be crowded, but Davis and Sweeney are close to locks to get the majority of playing time out there. Possible .300BA/ 20-30 SB.
Worst pick – (2) Vernon Wells – He’s never been extremely valuable before, unless you’re in a LF/CF/RF league, but there were still better OFs available.
My Pick – Dukes is still one of the more talented players in the game and should get every shot to prove himself this year. The one bonus I see to him is that if he does fail to keep his job, if a guy like Maxwell gets called he’s a nice upside pick as well that I wouldn’t feel bad about dropping Dukes for.
Round 21
(1) Frank J – Andy Pettitte (NYY – SP)
(2) samhorn_2000 – Delmon Young (Min – OF)
(3) D – Yadier Molina (StL – C)
(4) Lammster – Carlos Delgado (NYM – 1B)
(5) Anton – Plácido Polanco (Phi – 2B)
(6) Diego P – Juan Pierre (CWS – OF)
(7) Ryan – Bronson Arroyo (Cin – SP)
(8) danny h – David DeJesús (KC – OF)
(9) got2bwiz – Skip Schumaker (StL – 2B,OF)
(10) msilvett – Chris Davis (Tex – 1B,3B)
(11) michael – Orlando Cabrera (Cin – SS)
(12) hyerocker97 – Todd Helton (Col – 1B)
Best Pick – (6) Juan Pierre – As bad as he is in real life, he’s a fantasy stud who should give you a .300 BA/ 40 SB and a nice source of runs. Having Ozzie as his manager should give him every opportunity to hold on to the leadoff spot as well.
Worst Pick – (5) Placido Polanco – He’ll be trying to adjust to a new position and is definitely in the decline phase of his career. I assume he drafted him to play 2B and if that’s the case I would have taken the plunge on Schumaker or even Scott Sizemore before Polanco.
My Pick – I chose Juan Pierre like you might have noticed and he should be an elite source of SB while providing a nice source of runs & BA.
Round 22
(1) hyerocker97 – Mark Teahen (CWS – 1B,3B,OF)
(2) michael – Jermaine Dye (CWS – OF)
(3) msilvett – Kerry Wood (Cle – RP)
(4) got2bwiz – Nick Blackburn (Min – SP)
(5) danny h – Mike Lowell (Bos – 3B)
(6) Ryan – Barry Zito (SF – SP)
(7) Diego P – Carlos Ruiz (Phi – C)
(8) Anton – Gerardo Parra (Ari – OF)
(9) Lammster – Jhonny Peralta (Cle – 3B,SS)
(10) D – Magglio Ordóñez (Det – OF)
(11) samhorn_2000 – Nick Swisher (NYY – 1B,OF)
(12) Frank J – Brad Lidge (Phi – RP)
Best Pick – (10) Magglio Ordonez – Before last year he was one of the more reliable and valuble OF in the game, but after one bad year everyone seems to have jumped ship on him. Getting him this late in the game could give you the value of a 5-8 round player.
Worst Pick – (2) Jermaine Dye – It doesn’t look like Dye is going to be able to find work anywhere and if he does he’s not likely to be a starter. Seems like a lot of risk both in production and being able to find a job.
My Pick – I needed a backup catcher still and had to pick between Shoppach and Ruiz. Ruiz has shown a lot of improvement and is a better catcher than most believe. Somewhat of an upside pick.
Round 23
(1) Frank J – Joel Piñeiro (LAA – SP)
(2) samhorn_2000 – Martín Prado (Atl – 1B,2B,3B)
(3) D – Michael Brantley (Cle – OF)
(4) Lammster – Felipe López (Mil – 2B)
(5) Anton – Chase Headley (SD – 3B,OF)
(6) Diego P – Marc Rzepczynski (Tor – SP)
(7) Ryan – Ricky Romero (Tor – SP)
(8) danny h – Michael Wuertz (Oak – RP)
(9) got2bwiz – Randy Winn (NYY – OF)
(10) msilvett – Hideki Matsui (LAA – Util)
(11) michael – Ángel Guzmán (ChC – RP)
(12) hyerocker97 – Cristian Guzmán (Was – SS)
Best Pick – Michael Brantley – None of these picks are that great, but Brantley is a nice upside play. Should be a nice source for BA and some speed.
Worst Pick – (4) Felipe Lopez – He had a career year last year and isn’t likely to repeat, not to mention he’s having trouble finding a job. Looking around the league I just don’t see a palce he’ll land a starting gig and if it comes in the AL I doubt how much he’ll produce. Not to mention that I don’t think Callaspo was ever picked…
My Pick – (6) Marc Rzepczynski – His minor and major league numbers lead me to believe he’ll be a solid starter next year even in the AL East. Nice control and keeps the ball on the ground.
My Team
C – Mike Napoli
1B – Lance Berkman
2B – Robinson Cano
SS – Jimmy Rollins
3B – Michael Young
OF – Matt Kemp
OF – Jason Kubel
OF – JD Drew
Util – Elijiah Dukes
Util – Adam LaRoche
SP – Zack Greinke
SP – Wandy Rodriguez
RP – Carlos Marmol
RP – Chad Qualls
P – Jon Lester
P – Scott Baker
P – David Price
P – Mike Gonzalez
BENCH – Gordon Beckham
BENCH – Carlos Ruiz
BENCH – Marc Rzepczynski
BENCH – Juan Pierre
BENCH – Marco Scutaro
Overall I think it’s a solid team with decent upside and not a lot of guys with questionable production this year. I really like the offense, especially if I play Kubel/Drew’s matchups well, but I do admit there’s a bit to be desired among the SP. Greinke/Rodriguez/Baker are solid bets to produce, but Lester/Rzepcynski are a bit more of question marks. If Rollins bounces back and Dukes breaks out this team’s offense looks great.
Seattle Mariners NRI : Catchers
Seattle Mariners Non-Roster Invites : Catchers
Last year, the Mariners threw a bunch of players at the wall to see who would stick and it gave us David Aardsma along with some depth. This year, they’ll try the same thing again. However, they will have less roster spots open and I wouldn’t expect as much from these guys.
As with every spring training you’re going to have your glut of catchers to help out with catching all the pitchers that show up. With that said, let’s check out the current NRI catchers and their chances of sticking with the organization.
#41 – Eliezer Alfonzo (RHB) HT : 5-11 WT : 220 DOB : 02/07/79
Alfonzo’s best, and really only skill, is his power. That comes with the trade off of rarely getting on base. Alfonzo has a career .270 OBP in 489 PA spread across a four year period. Basically, you’re getting the same skill set as Jose Lopez, which isn’t that bad if he could repeat 2006 however unlikely that is. But you want to know about his defense, right? Well, from the numbers he’s put up he looks pretty average. He has a career 28 CS% and was the anti-Josh Bard last year in SD putting up a 30% rate, although that came in 24 SBA.
I do think he’s a decent backup catcher and if Rob Johnson can’t make the opening day roster there is a chance he sticks, at least for a little while. However, I wouldn’t expect to see him wearing the Mariners jersey any time soon. Of the catchers on the list he’s the most likely to stick at AAA with Adam Moore.
#26 – Josh Bard (SHB) HT : 6-3 WT : 225 DOB : 03/30/78
The cream of the crop of NRI catchers, so to speak. I don’t think it’s any secret that Bard is the favorite to break camp with the Mariners and act as the backup catcher to Rob Johnson until Adam Moore gets some more time at AAA. Josh Bard reminds me a lot of Alfonzo except he’s a switch hitter and probably does a better job at getting on base, although it’s hard to tell from his numbers. Almost everywhere I read says he’s patient, and I’ll take there words for it, but just looking at the numbers it’s hard to get a read. He does have a career .326 OBP, but when you start to look at the numbers it’s harder to make out. In 5 years he’s run an OBP south of .300, although in all but one of those years he had very few PA. In his two best years he reached 249 & 389 PA and put up OBP of .404 & .364. Really, I have no idea what type of OBP this guy is going to put up, he’s all over the map. If I had to guess I’d say around ~.300.
Defensively Josh Bard is probably easier to get a read on, right? Nope. Bard has a career CS% of 20. That’s bad…however, it comes with a silver lining. In every year outside of SD his CS% was at least 27. Lookout Landing already wrote a piece about it here so I won’t go in to detail too much, but he looks like an average/sligthly above average defensive catcher.
Bard looks like easily the best catcher of this group and should break camp with the Mariners unless Adam Moore looks really good in ST and Rob Johnson is ready to go, but that seems doubtful. Expect to see Josh Bard at least once a week to begin the year.
#72 Steve Baron (RHB) HT : 6-0 WT : 195 DOB : 12/07/90
If you’re wondering why this name sounds familiar it’s because Steve Baron was our supplemental round draft pick in this last years draft. Let me just say that Steve Baron will NOT make the team out of spring training. The only reason he’s here is to help catch and probably get some instructional help. Last year in the rookie league he put up a .179/.241/.292 slash line and by every report I’ve seen on him he needs a complete overhaul on his swing.
#74 Luis Oliveros (RHB) HT : 6-1 WT : 205 DOB : 06/18/83
He’ll be 26 coming in to next year and has spent his entire minor league career with the Mariners. There is a non-zero chance that he makes the team, but a lot would have to happen to everyone in front of him that he’s not even worth talking about. Last year between AA and AAA he ran a .276/.329/.344 slash line which actually isn’t that bad, but a lot of that success came in AA where he was spending his 5th year split between A+/AA.
Don’t expect to see him unless something catastrophic happens to the catchers ahead of him on the depth chart.
#48 Guillermo Quiroz (RHB) HT : 6-1 WT : 215 DOB : 11/29/81
For those that remember, Quiroz actually did get 15 PA for the Mariners last year and put up a .571 OPS. Anyways, judging by his fielding and offensive numbers, he’s an emergency catcher if he wants to stick in AA assuming Alfonzo stays on with the organization in AAA.
AL Central Position Rankings : Second Base
AL Central Position Rankings : Second Base
Two notes before we start.
1.I got this idea from www.sodomojo.com. They’re doing it for the AL West, so I thought it would be a waste for me to do the same division. As such, I don’t know a ton about the AL Central, so keep that in mind if I make a mistake.
2.I will be using CHONE for these rankings.
This time we move from the offensive minded first basemen to the…offensive minded second basemen. It’s weird, second base is generally viewed as an offensive light position, but in reality it isn’t. Especially in the American League with guys like Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler. As you may have guessed, the AL Central is no different. So let’s check them out.
Minnesota Twins
Orlando Hudson
Age : 32
2010 PA : 570
2010 wRC+ : 103
2010 OBP : .346
2010 SLG : .403
2010 Fielding : -1
2010 WAR : 2.1
Hudson was a great pickup for the Twins and helps put them in a class of their own in this weak division. The funny thing about Hudson is that he used to be a fantastic defender but has seen his skill slowly deteriorate and become a more offensive minded player. Even with the decline though he doesn’t figure to be that bad, however it should be noted that he’ll be moving to turf so his defense may take a hit. Which brings us to our next point, he’s never been a picture of health playing more than 140 games only 3 times in his 7.5 year career.
Drop the projected PA by ~75 and that projection lines up with what I would guess.
Detroit Tigers
Scott Sizemore
Age : 25
2010 PA : 419
2010 wRC+ : 92
2010 OBP : .323
2010 SLG : .389
2010 Fielding : -1
2010 WAR : 1.2
I’ll be surprised if Sizemore produces as bad as he’s projected unless his AFL injury is worse than everyone thinks it is. Overall, he’s a slightly above/average second basemen. He projects to have slightly above average power, but nothing amazing. Defense is slightly below, but not terrible. Contact rate & patience are pretty good and while he doesn’t have blazing speed he has good instincts on the base paths. During his peak he could be a 20-20 player.
Kansas City
Alberto Callaspo
Age : 27
2010 PA : 504
2010 wRC+ : 105
2010 OBP : .349
2010 SLG : .412
2010 Fielding : -5
2010 WAR : 1.7
Ooooohhh, the magical age 27 season! Just like Scott Sizemore I feel like the projections are undershooting his projection by quite a bit. As long as management doesn’t get in his way I see him getting 570+ PA and a slash line of .300/.355/.420. Because of his poor fielding I find it really hard to believe he’s much more than a slightly above average second baseman (2.5 WAR?). Just like the last 2 players he’s pretty much an above/average second baseman.
Chicago White Sox
Gordon Beckham
Age : 23
2010 PA : 530
2010 wRC+ : 115
2010 OBP : .348
2010 SLG : .457
2010 Fielding : +3.0
2010 WAR : 3.6
That’s one of the higher projections from CHONE I’ve seen in awhile on someone so young and I have to agree with it. He definitely has the ability to outproduce them, but those numbers seem like a good guess. The only thing I’m not sure about is the fielding. According to UZR last year he was below average at 3B, but he played SS in his brief stint in the minor leagues so he may convert well to 2B. As long as he doesn’t completely humiliate himself out there he’s a strong bet to be an above average player at a deep position.
Cleveland Indians
Luis Valbuena
Age : 24
2010 PA : 454
2010 wRC+ : 93
2010 OBP : .328
2010 SLG : .400
2010 Fielding : +2.0
2010 WAR : 1.5
In 2008 Valbuena had a sort of breakthrough with his plate discipline putting up an 11.3 BB% while cutting down on his strikeouts. In the ML last year his BB% dropped down to 6.5 while his K% sky rocketed up to 22.6 in 368 PA. Valbuena probably figures to be below average offensively next year unless he can translate the success he had in the minors in to the ML. It’s also worth noting he only has 300 PA at AAA, and while the time he spent there was very good it may not be a bad idea for him to get some time there, although the Indians probably don’t have anyone else they would want to use if they were to send him down there.
I’m not sure how good his fielding actually is. Being a Mariners fan I feel I should know how good his defense is since he came up through our system, but unfortunately I have no idea. All I know is UZR hated him last year rating him as a -7.2 fielder in only 777 innings. He projects as a +2 fielder according to CHONE so I’ll just assume the almighty AI is smarter than I.
Rankings
1. Gordon Beckham – He may be the youngest player on the list but he has all-star potential and was already an above average regular last year.
2. Orlando Hudson – He may be in his declining phase of his career but he’s still a good baserunner & hitter.
3. Alberto Callaspo – He may be the second best hitter in the group, but his defense needs improvement. He’ll be entering the magical age 27 season so he may be in for a career year.
4. Scott Sizemore – Could realistically be a 20-20 player this year.
5. Luis Valbuena – He still seems like he’s in the ‘learning’ phase and isn’t as offensively gifted as any of the others on the list, but he should be a solid 2B in a few years.
AL Central Position Rankings : First Base
AL Central Position Rankings : First Base
Two notes before we start.
1. I got this idea from www.sodomojo.com. They’re doing it for the AL West, so I thought it would be a waste for me to do the same division. As such, I don’t know a ton about the AL Central, so keep that in mind if I make a mistake.
2. I will be using CHONE for these rankings.
With that explained, let’s get these rankings underway.
Minnesota
Justin Morneau
Age : 29
2010 PA : 602
2010 wRC+ : 126
2010 OBP : .350
2010 SLG : .494
2010 Fielding : -1
2010 WAR : 2.7
Morneau is one of those guys who seems to be a bit overrated because of his gaudy RBI totals. Last year he dealt with lower back problems and had surgery on his wrist to remove bone chips and both are something to be worried about when it comes to a 1B, although neither problem was extremely serious. I’d bet money against him getting 602 PA, though. I’m also not sure if his production will suffer from those problems if they prop up again. Last year he still managed a 129 wRC+ so there’s no reason to think he will, but it’s something to consider.
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera
Age : 27
2010 PA : 647
2010 wRC+ : 147
2010 OBP : .374
2010 SLG : .549
2010 Fielding : -1
2010 WAR : 4.5
Cabrera really is one of the best hitters in the game and it’s scary to think that he’s just entering his age 27 season. The one thing in the projections that I disagree with is his fielding projection. I do think he’s a slightly above average defender at 1B, although the difference between -1 and what I’m thinking isn’t huge. Expect 35+ HR and a ~.400 OBP.
Kansas City
Billy Butler
Age : 24
2010 PA : 580
2010 wRC+ : 130
2010 OBP : .372
2010 SLG : .478
2010 Fielding : -7
2010 WAR : 2.2
Last year, Billy Butler was one of the few bright spots on a terrible KC team. He’ll be playing his age 24 season next year and should be able to improve on last season. However, there are some things about last years performance that raise a few questions. Mainly, his .335 BABIP. Billy Butler is a slug, and his fielding helps show that, so I find it hard to believe that he’ll put up a BABIP that high again and I doubt his AVG will be as high as it was last year. He also doesn’t walk as much as you might like and with an expected drop in his BABIP he may only put up a slightly above average OBP next season. One other concern is his ISO last year was .191, which was out of the norm for him even when looking at his minor league numbers. There are a number of reasons it may not be a fluke though (stronger/mechanical changes/used to the league), so while I’m not saying it’ll fall back to earth it is something to keep in mind.
I think we’ll have a much better understanding of Billy Butler’s ability after 2010.
Chicago
Paul Konerko
Age : 34
2010 PA : 583
2010 wRC+ : 119
2010 OBP : .345
2010 SLG : .468
2010 Fielding : 0
2010 WAR : 2.2
Konerko is at the end of his career, but he’s still an asset at the second toughest division in the AL which says a lot. The one plus to Konerko is that he’s never suffered from any sort of injury that worries me and last year only had 2 DTD injuries – a sprained thumb (re-aggravation) & shoulder injury from HBP. Konerko wasn’t ever an AMAZING hitter to begin with, but he hasn’t lost a lot of ability either and is roughly in the middle of the 1B pack. He might be the most boring and average 1B in the game today from both a fielding and offensive standpoint.
Cleveland
Matt LaPorta
Age : 25
2010 PA : 487
2010 wRC+ : 112
2010 OBP : .337
2010 SLG : .457
2010 Fielding : -4
2010 WAR : 1.3
LaPorta MAY not be the opening day 1B for Cleveland. He played LF in the minors, but his bat should be good enough to move away from LF and they don’t have anyone else on the current roster who has enough offensive ability to play the position (Not to mention he’s a terrible defender). He also had arthroscopic hip surgery and may not be ready come Opening Day, so that’s another thing to keep in mind. Let’s get down to production, though.
With rookies it’s a lot tougher to say what I think about the projections, but I do think LaPorta will produce at a higher level than CHONE projects him. I could see him putting up a 125 wRC+ in his first year and a SLG north of .500. The big question will be his defense, where I could see him performing as badly or worse than Billy Butler, and if he can stay healthy. He’s always been plagued by injury so he may not even be able to reach the 487 PA CHONE projects him to.
Hard to believe he’s older than Billy Butler, isn’t it?
Rankings
1. Miguel Cabrera – Easy choice
2. Justin Morneau – Big gap between 1 & 2, but Morneau should be an asset if he can stay healthy.
3. Paul Konerko – Definitely in the decline phase of his career, but hasn’t shown anything major yet.
4. Billy Butler – He definitely broke out last year and if he improves I’d bump him up past Konerko, but I’m still a bit skeptical.
5. Matt LaPorta – Could outperform the three above him with his plus-plus raw power, but I doubt it.
Player Profile : Matt Tuiasosopo
Player Profile : SEA – Matt Tuiasosopo IF
| Year | Level | AB | PA | ISO | BB% | K% | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | AA | 446 | 548 | .143 | 13.9 | 25.3 | .330 | .260 | .371 | .404 | 112 |
| 2008 | AAA | 437 | 500 | .172 | 9.4 | 23.8 | .344 | .281 | .364 | .453 | 110 |
| 2009 | AAA | 226 | 269 | .212 | 13.4 | 36.7 | .364 | .261 | .368 | .473 | 124 |
Quick Bio – Tui was the Mariners 93rd overall pick, out of HS, in the 2004 MLB draft. At draft time he was more projection than anything else. He’s sort of a hometown favorite having grown up in WA and being part of the Tuiasosopo family. Next year will be his age 24 season and he still has untapped potential. How much potential is left and how good can we expect him to be?
Short Term (2010-2013) – Tui came up as a SS but doesn’t figure to play there at this point and was coming up as a 3B until this year where he was tried out at second base. Most reports say he has gotten much better with the glove and figures to be an average defender at the ML level, although I haven’t gotten any sort of look at him to give my opinion so we’ll have to assume that what they say is true. As far as long term position goes it’s kind of confusing because his best asset is his strong arm, but with Chone Figgins locked up at 3B and Dustin Ackley possibly taking over 2B (pending how the experiment goes) he may not have anywhere to play at the ML level which is sort of a problem for someone as close to the majors as he is. I asked Jason Churchill over at Prospect Insider what he thought of Tui playing in one of the corners and he told me this :
Tui’s athleticism would certainly allow for such a move, but he’s never played there with any regularity at any level of baseball and it’s not something you do in the big leagues. But I like him in a corner OF spot long term much better than at third. Enough arm, good feet.
If he does move to RF/LF, which I think he should do, he’d likely spend the entire year at AAA, which he probably would have regardless, but there’s a problem. Ichiro and Franklin Gutierrez are going to be back next year and that only leaves one spot in the OF open which would likely go to the better prospect, Michael Saunders.
So where exactly does Tui end up in the short term? My guess is that he either becomes trade bait or takes over Griffey’s bench spot in 2011 as a backup 1B/cOF. There’s a possibility, depending on what happens to the OF prospects behind him, that he could take over for Ichiro in RF, but I’d bet against that.
Long Term (2014+) – This is the year that Chone Figgins has a vesting option depending on if he reaches 600 PAs in 2013. Tui would be entering his physical peak at this point and if Figgins is still in good shape then I see no reason why he would be any worse because of the style of game he plays and his athleticism. At this point, if Tui is still playing for the Mariners and they’ve committed him to being an OF I don’t see any way he has a starting job if the cOF positions are taken by some of the guys in the system (Pimentel/Saunders/Triunfel/Jones/etc…).
I think Tui will have a pretty long career and should be starting by this point because he should be a solid/above average regular in his peak. I think from a production standpoint you’re looking at a guy who will strike out around 20% of the time while walking half of that and providing 25+ home runs during his peak while making below average contact.
Summary – I think Tui has a great shot at making the team in 2011 on the bench and playing all over the field. Eventually I think he’ll end up being traded after he’s established some value at the ML level because I just can’t see him beating out the other OFs that are lower in the minors and I know that we can’t expect every prospect to work out perfectly, but there’s just a lot of quality down at the lower levels that I have to assume at least one of those guys should work out. Tui should have a good career and a very nice peak, but what position he eventually ends up playing, and how well he handles it, will decide his value.
Safeco & CF Defense
Safeco & Center Field
Thanks for helping us get Gutierrez
I was listening to the local radio a few days ago when Keith Law came on to discuss the Felix Hernandez deal. During the interview he said something to the effect of not being sure if Seattle center fielders are as good as the defensive metrics say or if it’s a park effect. I have never heard anyone say something like that and it got me curious. Does Safeco actually make fielders look better than they actually are?
Unfortunately I don’t have Dewan’s +/- numbers so we’ll have to use UZR only, but it should serve our purpose just fine. We also only have UZR data from ’02-’09, but that should be enough time considering the players who have manned CF for us during that time. Let’s start as far back as we can go, 2002-2003.
Mike Cameron
2002 [1318 Inn] : +9.5 (11.5 RNG/0.6 ERR/-2.6 ARM)
2003 [1284 Inn] : +12.5 (18.4 RNG/ 0.1 ERR/ -3.7 ARM)
Clearly, Mike Cameron was a gold glove worthy center fielder during those years, but how does he look after his time in Seattle?
Center Field Only
NYM – 2004 [1184 Inn] : +4.0 (3.4 RNG/ -1.1 ERR/ 1.8 ARM)
NYM – 2005 : Only completed 79 innings. N/A
SDP – 2006 [1244 Inn] : -0.1 (2.1 RNG/ -0.1 ERR/ -2.4 ARM)
SDP – 2007 [1329 Inn] : -10.4 (-8 RNG/ -0.1 ERR/ -2.1 ARM)
MIL – 2008 [1057 Inn] : +11.3 (8.2 RNG/ 1 ERR/ 2.1 ARM)
MIL – 2009 [1267 Inn] : +10 (14.7 RNG/ -0.7 ERR/ -4 ARM)
So far it seems like there might be something to this. San Diego & New York definitely made him look worse than he was in Seattle, but after moving back to Milwaukee he looks like a gold glove CF again despite being in his late 30′s.
Fast forward to 2004 and Randy Winn was now the starting CF. He spent 2.5 season with us from ’03-’05. During that time he produced the following seasons
Randy Winn
2003 [RF-24 , LF-1188, CF-154 Inn] : -0.2 (2.3 RNG/ -0.4 ERR/ -2.1 ARM)
2004 [LF-288, CF-1070.1 Inn] : +4.6 (3.3 RNG/ -1.7 ERR/ -1.4 ARM)
2005 [LF-795.2, CF-47 Inn] : -3.2 (-4.4 RNG/ 1.2 ERR/ -1.1 ARM)
And after his time in Seattle?
SFG 2006 [RF-652.2, LF-100.2, CF-441 Inn] : +8.7 (5.3 RNG/ 1.1 ERR/ 2.2 ARM)
SFG 2007 [RF-869, LF – 137.2, CF-284.1 Inn] : +1.4 (0.9 RNG/ 2.0 ERR/ -1.5 ARM)
SFG 2008 [RF-1108.1, LF-107.2, CF-71 Inn] : +17.4 (17 RNG/ 0.5 ERR/ -0.2 ARM)
SFG 2009 [RF-770, LF-319.2, CF-101.1 Inn] : +16.5 (13.8 RNG/ 1.3 ERR/ 1.4 ARM)
After moving to a corner OF position he seems to have gotten better despite playing in his thirties.
As you may have noticed, Randy Winn played only 47 innings in his last year in Seattle. So who took over the innings in CF? None other than uber prospect Jeremy Reed. Let’s check his Seattle numbers.
Jeremy Reed [CF Only]
2005 [1149.2 Inn] : +8.5 (10.6 RNG/ 1.4 ERR/ -3.5 ARM)
2006 [507.1 Inn] : -4.8 (-5.5 RNG/ 0.2 ERR/ 0.4 ARM)
2008 [453.2 Inn] : -0.1 (-0.1 RNG/ 0.2 ERR/ -0.2 ARM)
He certainly stormed on to the scene in 2005, but in infrequent playing time the next 3 years he wasn’t able to field anywhere near the same. In 2009 he was packaged with JJ Putz in a trade to the Mets and spent time their as a fourth outfielder.
NYM 2009 [RF-49, LF-141.1, CF-86.2 Inn] : +1.6 (0.3 RNG/ 0.1 ERR/ 0.9 ARM)
That 2005 still sticks out like a sore thumb, huh? I don’t think there’s much we can take away from Jeremy Reed because of how infrequently he played the last 4 years. Now let’s move on to the CF who played in 2007 and split time with Reed in 2008. Ichiro Suzuki.
Ichiro
2007 [1339.1 Inn] : +6.7 (-1.7 RNG/ 0.8 ERR/ 7.6 ARM)
2008 [601.2 Inn] : +7.4 (1.9 RNG/ 0.7 ERR/ 4.7 ARM)
Unlike everyone else on this list, Ichiro hasn’t played anywhere except Seattle, but let’s take a look a quick look at his work in RF.
2002 : +6.1
2003 : +19.9
2004 : +13.9
2005 : +5.3
2006 : +13.8
2008 : +3.0
2009 : +10.5
It’s tough to take anything away from Ichiro as well because he’s played his entire career here and if there is a Safeco effect we wouldn’t see it. I will say, though, that if there is one I really don’t think Ichiro would be heavily affected by it. Much like Mike Cameron he’s got a great athletic body and the scouting report definitely matches the production.
That's quite the pose.
And finally, we have the guy who started this whole thing. Franklin Gutierrez. As I’m sure everyone knows, he came over to the Mariners before the ’09 season in the same deal that sent Jeremy Reed out of town. First, let’s check out last year.
Franklin Gutierrez [CF]
2009 [1353.1 Inn] : +29.1 (29.3 RNG/ -2.0 ERR/ 1.8 ARM)
WOW! That is a legendary season, but how much of it was Franklin Gutierrez and how much of it was the park? Let’s check out his years with Cleveland.
2006 [RF-212, LF-83, CF-27 Inn] : +0.7 (3.2 RNG/ -1.0 ERR/ -1.5 ARM)
2007 [RF-578.2, LF-58.2, CF-32 Inn] : +9.6 (11.5 RNG/ 0.7 ERR/ -2.6 ARM)
2008 [RF-763.2, LF-78, CF-97 Inn] : +20.9 (15.8 RNG/ 0.7 ERR/ 4.5 ARM)
First of all let me just say that Franklin Gutierrez is NOT a +29 fielder. That would be absolutely ridiculous. Just my rough estimate but I’d guess he’s more of a +14ish. Looking at his years in Cleveland it certainly doesn’t seem crazy to think he really is the best fielder in the game. He only played about 2/3 of the season in ’07 & ’08 and yet he still managed to rack up crazy high numbers, albeit mainly in RF.
So, what can we take away from all of this? I personally don’t think there’s much, if any, of a Safeco effect on defensive numbers, but I can’t say for sure from this quick look. I would really like to have backup from the other systems before I say for sure there isn’t, but from these numbers it doesn’t seem like it. Randy Winn/Mike Cameron/Franklin Gutierrez have all been gold glove worthy players in other ballparks and even though Ichiro has played his entire career here it doesn’t seem crazy to think he really is just a great defender. The only guy on the list that sticks out is Jeremy Reed and his +8.5 UZR rookie season, but that could easily just be one year noise. There are so many variables to consider that it’s way too hard to say for sure, but hopefully someone much smarter than me will take a deeper look in to defense & park effects.
To sum it up, there are two things I take away from this.
1 – If there is an effect it doesn’t show up much in these numbers
2 – Even if there was an effect I doubt it would be very big and I have no doubt in my mind that Franklin Gutierrez really is the best OF defender in the game.
Felix Hernandez Extension
How fast until these sell out?
“The Seattle Mariners have been shuffling the deck, but it looks like they’ll keep their ace.On the eve of exchanging salary figures for arbitration, right-hander Felix Hernandez has agreed to a multiyear contract with the team, pending a physical, a source with direct knowledge of the talks told ESPN.com’s Keith Law on Monday. The amount or length of the deal were not immediately available.”
“Was just told that the deal may very well be six years guaranteed and less than $100 million, with some incentives that could push it over the $100-million mark. “
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