AL Central Position Rankings : First Base

AL Central Position Rankings : First Base

Two notes before we start.

1. I got this idea from www.sodomojo.com. They’re doing it for the AL West, so I thought it would be a waste for me to do the same division. As such, I don’t know a ton about the AL Central, so keep that in mind if I make a mistake.
2. I will be using CHONE for these rankings.

With that explained, let’s get these rankings underway.

Minnesota
Justin Morneau
Age : 29
2010 PA : 602
2010 wRC+ : 126
2010 OBP : .350
2010 SLG : .494
2010 Fielding : -1
2010 WAR : 2.7

Morneau is one of those guys who seems to be a bit overrated because of his gaudy RBI totals. Last year he dealt with lower back problems and had surgery on his wrist to remove bone chips and both are something to be worried about when it comes to a 1B, although neither problem was extremely serious. I’d bet money against him getting 602 PA, though. I’m also not sure if his production will suffer from those problems if they prop up again. Last year he still managed a 129 wRC+ so there’s no reason to think he will, but it’s something to consider.

Detroit
Miguel Cabrera
Age : 27
2010 PA : 647
2010 wRC+ : 147
2010 OBP : .374
2010 SLG : .549
2010 Fielding : -1
2010 WAR : 4.5

Cabrera really is one of the best hitters in the game and it’s scary to think that he’s just entering his age 27 season. The one thing in the projections that I disagree with is his fielding projection. I do think he’s a slightly above average defender at 1B, although the difference between -1 and what I’m thinking isn’t huge. Expect 35+ HR and a ~.400 OBP.

Kansas City
Billy Butler
Age : 24
2010 PA : 580
2010 wRC+ : 130
2010 OBP : .372
2010 SLG : .478
2010 Fielding : -7
2010 WAR : 2.2

Last year, Billy Butler was one of the few bright spots on a terrible KC team. He’ll be playing his age 24 season next year and should be able to improve on last season. However, there are some things about last years performance that raise a few questions. Mainly, his .335 BABIP. Billy Butler is a slug, and his fielding helps show that, so I find it hard to believe that he’ll put up a BABIP that high again and I doubt his AVG will be as high as it was last year. He also doesn’t walk as much as you might like and with an expected drop in his BABIP he may only put up a slightly above average OBP next season. One other concern is his ISO last year was .191, which was out of the norm for him even when looking at his minor league numbers. There are a number of reasons it may not be a fluke though (stronger/mechanical changes/used to the league), so while I’m not saying it’ll fall back to earth it is something to keep in mind.

I think we’ll have a much better understanding of Billy Butler’s ability after 2010.

Chicago
Paul Konerko
Age : 34
2010 PA : 583
2010 wRC+ : 119
2010 OBP : .345
2010 SLG : .468
2010 Fielding : 0
2010 WAR : 2.2

Konerko is at the end of his career, but he’s still an asset at the second toughest division in the AL which says a lot. The one plus to Konerko is that he’s never suffered from any sort of injury that worries me and last year only had 2 DTD injuries – a sprained thumb (re-aggravation) & shoulder injury from HBP. Konerko wasn’t ever an AMAZING hitter to begin with, but he hasn’t lost a lot of ability either and is roughly in the middle of the 1B pack. He might be the most boring and average 1B in the game today from both a fielding and offensive standpoint.

Cleveland
Matt LaPorta
Age : 25
2010 PA : 487
2010 wRC+ : 112
2010 OBP : .337
2010 SLG : .457
2010 Fielding : -4
2010 WAR : 1.3

LaPorta MAY not be the opening day 1B for Cleveland. He played LF in the minors, but his bat should be good enough to move away from LF and they don’t have anyone else on the current roster who has enough offensive ability to play the position (Not to mention he’s a terrible defender). He also had arthroscopic hip surgery and may not be ready come Opening Day, so that’s another thing to keep in mind. Let’s get down to production, though.

With rookies it’s a lot tougher to say what I think about the projections, but I do think LaPorta will produce at a higher level than CHONE projects him. I could see him putting up a 125 wRC+ in his first year and a SLG north of .500. The big question will be his defense, where I could see him performing as badly or worse than Billy Butler, and if he can stay healthy. He’s always been plagued by injury so he may not even be able to reach the 487 PA CHONE projects him to.

Hard to believe he’s older than Billy Butler, isn’t it?

Rankings
1. Miguel Cabrera – Easy choice
2. Justin Morneau – Big gap between 1 & 2, but Morneau should be an asset if he can stay healthy.
3. Paul Konerko – Definitely in the decline phase of his career, but hasn’t shown anything major yet.
4. Billy Butler – He definitely broke out last year and if he improves I’d bump him up past Konerko, but I’m still a bit skeptical.
5. Matt LaPorta – Could outperform the three above him with his plus-plus raw power, but I doubt it.

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